Fidelity Says Bitcoin (BTC) Bear Market May Not Be Over, Flags November Low Risk

Fidelity Flags November Low Risk

Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied hard through August, but Fidelity's research desk warns the bear market may not be finished. In a new outlook, Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, wrote that the July floor could already be in — or that the asset could still drop to another new low in November or later, since historical four-year halving cycles are unreliable for timing entries. The rally ignited after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases, reviving the debasement trade. BTC recently traded near $81,639, up almost 30% on the month, and President Donald Trump has pushed lawmakers to pass the market-structure Clarity Act, which heads to a vote this month.

Bulls Battle $79,000 Resistance

Earlier in Thursday's session, the coin was boxed between $78,400 and $78,743, up 2.5% in 24 hours, with buyers defending the $76,229 seven-day low while sellers capped advances near $79,000. Our reading of the intraday charts shows the bounce lacked volume confirmation — 13 daily moving averages flash buy signals, yet momentum oscillators remain neutral, with the daily RSI at 67, below overbought territory. A decisive daily close above roughly $81,280 would mark the identified upside trigger, while losing $76,230 would void the recovery structure and reopen $74,600, then $71,000–$72,900. Until one boundary gives way, the evidence favors trading the range rather than chasing mid-range pops. Live pricing has since pushed above that band, with spot now changing hands near $80,946.

Bitcoin-Gold Correlation at Six-Year High

A separate institutional report from Bitwise argues Bitcoin is now trading like digital gold: its correlation with the precious metal has hit a six-year high, a level last seen in 2020 after the Covid stimulus wave. André Dragosch, Bitwise's European Head of Research, notes the coin's correlation with equities simultaneously fell to a one-year low, implying a decoupling between hard assets and stocks. The driver, per the memo, is government intervention — the Treasury's push to rein in long-term borrowing costs weakened the dollar, while U.S. public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time the same week. ETF and macro flows suggest investors are no longer choosing between gold and Bitcoin as debasement hedges — they are buying both.

50-Week Moving Average Reclaimed

Technically, the week's pivotal development is the decisive reclaim of the 50-week simple moving average, which Galaxy Research pins near $81,041. BTC printed a daily high of $81,797 before easing to around $81,400, a gain of more than 5% in 24 hours. The level matters because Bitcoin spent much of the past year beneath it after peaking above $124,000 in late 2025; a late-August attempt stalled at $81,265, right at the then-$81,085 average. In prior bear markets, weekly closes typically stayed under this ceiling until the downturn was ending, making this week's close especially consequential. Derivatives added fuel: roughly $229.56 million in BTC positions were liquidated over 24 hours, including $214.81 million in shorts — consistent with our own coverage of crypto liquidations over 24 hours.

Golden Cross Setup Builds

Analysts on The Wolf Of All Streets program highlight another bullish tell: a golden cross — the short-term moving average crossing above its long-term counterpart — is approaching on the daily chart, historically read as strong accumulation. The setup pairs with fresh capital entering spot Bitcoin ETFs, which absorbs sell pressure and firms the price floor, and with declining Tether (USDT) dominance, evidence that investors are rotating out of cash into risk assets. Their combined reading points to a potential new rally of up to 25%. BitGo CEO Mike Belshe, a guest on the episode, added institutional-custody and U.S. futures-market perspective on deepening corporate appetite — themes that echo how a whale-scale bid can compress available supply. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Binance.

$82,300 Resistance in Focus

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $82,300 resistance at 75/100 (STRONG), driven by the confluence of Fibo 0.000, Donchian Upper, ATR Upper and R1, while the nearest support at $79,507 scores 72/100 from Fibo 0.114 and a flip of prior resistance into support. Spot sits at $80,946, up 3.67% in 24 hours, with RSI at 71.58 — slightly overbought — and a bullish MACD inside a confirmed uptrend. Derivatives positioning is constructive but not euphoric: funding at 0.0031%, open interest near $16.69 billion, and a long/short account ratio of 0.91 shows shorts still slightly heavier. The Fear & Greed Index at 74 (Greed) supports trend continuation; a bearish invalidation arrives if the $79,507 shelf fails on a closing basis.