Galaxy's Alex Thorn Says Bitcoin (BTC) Bottomed as Dormant Supply Outflows Halve to 34,000 BTC

Alex Thorn Calls the Bottom

The reasoning, not a number, leads Alex Thorn's new call: Bitcoin (BTC) has already printed its bear-market floor, and the Galaxy research head builds the case on who has stopped selling. In a post published on X on Monday, 2026-10-26, Thorn argues the current drawdown has bottomed and that conditions now favor adding to positions rather than trading them. Whatever the Bitcoin (BTC) price does in the sessions ahead, his case rests on four shifts arriving at the same time: fading sell pressure, a harder-edged fiat-debasement argument, the exit of speculative capital and a turn in market mood. The first pillar is supply. Coins held for five years or longer, the dormant supply parked in crypto whale addresses, have moved more slowly every year. Monthly outflows from that cohort averaged 67,000 BTC in 2024, eased to 47,000 BTC in 2025 and have run near 34,000 BTC in 2026, half the 2024 peak. Each step down, in his telling, marks the same cohort of long-dormant coins being spent progressively less, a pattern he links to the exhaustion of early profit-taking rather than to any change in demand. In his Monday post, Thorn read that deceleration as evidence that the profit-taking engine behind the bear phase is running out of fuel. Early holders who banked gains through 2024 and 2025 have largely finished distributing, on his account, which removes the structural overhang that capped rallies. He is explicit that the call is a process claim, not a date forecast: the bottom is confirmed by behavior, in his framing, and investors who wait for further confirmation may find the accumulation phase already behind them. The conclusion he draws is a holding one: with all four conditions in place, the moment to HODL and add to positions, which he calls the strategic window, is here.

@intangiblecoins · X post

His Monday post.

View on X

CME Shorts Shrink to 30,600 BTC

Positioning data carries the second pillar. Citing the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Thorn notes that asset managers' net long positions in CME Bitcoin (BTC) futures fell from a record 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC, a 57% reduction, while leveraged funds' net shorts contracted from 71,400 BTC to 30,600 BTC. Asset managers in the CFTC's classification are the institutions that run long-only and spot ETF strategies, so their retreat marks the conservative end of the market rather than its leverage-heavy edge. He reads the shrinkage on both sides of the same book as confirmation that the basis-arbitrage and macro-speculative capital that dominated the late cycle has largely left. The flush lines up with what our desk recorded when a liquidation wave cleared $152.97 million as the squeeze flipped to shorts. Exchange-flow readings point the same way, with whale inflows to Binance down 35.6% in two months. The third pillar is fiscal. Thorn points to the US federal debt crossing $40.44 trillion with annual interest outlays of $1.28 trillion, a roughly 5% cost on that debt and deficits running near $2 trillion a year. A country carrying that structure, he argues, faces rising odds of medium-term currency debasement, and shorting equities and hard assets amounts in practice to a long position in the dollar. His fourth pillar is contrarian. Sentiment, he writes, has swung for the third time toward the blockchain-not-Bitcoin framing that Bitcoin Maximalism has pushed against since the enterprise-ledger waves of 2016 and 2018-2019, when Wall Street attention concentrated on corporate blockchain projects and left the asset behind. Each earlier split between technology enthusiasm and asset neglect, in his telling, preceded Bitcoin's next sustained advance. Taken together, the four conditions reduce his instruction to a plain one: this is the phase in which investors should be adding exposure, not exiting it.

The structure of the argument deserves as much weight as its direction. Thorn offers no price target and no timing signal; the case is built on supply discipline, positioning flush and fiscal arithmetic, which makes it a hold thesis rather than a trade. The weakest link is one he names himself: the debasement pillar assumes the US fiscal trajectory keeps compounding, a macro assumption that sits outside on-chain records and stands apart from Proof of Work scarcity. Our separate reading of holder behavior points the same way, with short-term holder profit share sliding to 70% from near 100% in a month. If dormant outflows keep decelerating, the thesis accumulates evidence; if deficits stabilize, it loses its engine.