Saxo Bank Warns Gold's Slide May Deepen After $3,886 Break

Worst October Since 2008

Gold ended its worst October since the 2008 financial crisis at $3,875 an ounce on Friday, and the final session alone took 3.6% off the price. The last hours of the month did the damage: the metal broke a floor near $3,970, then settled below $3,886, the low it set in October 2025. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, laid out the warning in a post on X, writing that chart-driven sellers are in control, that the selloff across global technology and AI-related stocks fed the drop alongside rising energy prices and renewed concerns over US strikes, and that a recovery above $4,000 is what would begin to calm the short-term picture.

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Recent buyers carry the most exposure. Investors added roughly 150 tonnes to gold exchange-traded funds since July, and much of that metal now changes hands below its purchase cost, according to the Saxo Bank assessment. Positioning has been thinning for months: hedge funds have trimmed bullish gold bets for nine straight weeks, Hansen noted, and he warned that if more holders capitulate the slide could run both deeper and longer. Equity markets add a second channel of pressure, because hedge funds have just executed their largest stock pullback since 2017, led by artificial-intelligence shares. In Hansen's view, a deeper stock crash could push the Federal Reserve to drop the two rate hikes markets still expect, meaning the rout that hurts gold today could eventually support it.

Brent's 10% Against Gold's 4%

The macro link runs through energy. Economist Robin Brooks argues in a note on X that, since the Iran war began, each 10% jump in Brent crude has matched a roughly 4% drop in gold, because pricier oil feeds inflation and keeps US rate hikes alive; gold pays no interest, so higher rates make it less attractive to hold. He issued the assessment after the metal slipped back below $4,000 on Friday, amid renewed talk of US strikes on Iran, and judged that an imminent return to a “hot” war would weigh on gold only a little, with the downside from it limited.

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Contrarians read the washout as proof of how much speculation has already left. Ronnie Stoeferle of asset manager Incrementum tracks the exit: bullish silver bets have shrunk to 3,321 contracts from 42,756 in July 2025, and only 10% of gold miners still trade above their 200-day average, a widely watched long-term trend line. Market commentator Prem Soni called Friday's drop a margin call, with brokers demanding cash from investors who bought technology stocks on credit; as he put it, an overleveraged investor with zero cash flow sells what he can sell, not what he wants to sell. Analyst Rashad Hajiyev reads 2026 as a consolidation year after the 2024–2025 run, with a possible push toward $10,000 in 2027 or 2028. Attention now turns to the calendar: Americans vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday, and the October jobs report follows on Friday.

RSI at 28 Near the Strongest Support

Spot gold has steadied since that close: COINOTAG data puts the last price at $3,893.74, up 0.11% over 24 hours, inside a $3,888.16 to $3,895.83 range. The Friday break parked price just above the strongest level on COINOTAG's composite, support at $3,878.03, scored 80/100, while the first resistance overhead sits at $3,902.49, scored 69/100. Momentum readings stay firmly bearish: the daily RSI prints 28.0, territory usually reached at capitulation, and the MACD signal is negative within a confirmed downtrend. A daily close back above $4,000 would mark the first turn in that picture; losing $3,878 would hand the next leg to sellers.