Goldman Sachs Predicts October Fed Hike, Bitcoin (BTC) Steady Near $76K

Goldman Sachs Turns Hawkish

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver another 25-basis-point rate increase at the October FOMC meeting, abandoning its earlier view that September's move would be the final hike of the cycle. The US central bank lifted its federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00% with last week's 25-basis-point increase, and the investment bank's economists concluded in a research note dated September 17 that back-to-back increases are the logical next step if the Fed is serious about returning inflation to its 2% target. Goldman economist David Mericle attributed the forecast change to three factors from the September meeting: the dot plot, in which 16 of 18 officials projected at least one additional hike in 2026; the unanimous character of the rate decision; and Chair Kevin Warsh's press-conference language. Policymakers also raised their estimate of the neutral rate — the theoretical level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy — from 3.06% to 3.25%. Notably, Warsh framed the hike less as the opening of a deliberate tightening campaign and more as the removal of a portion of remaining policy accommodation, a wording read as signaling that rates have not yet reached sufficiently restrictive territory.

Markets Price October at a Coin Flip

Goldman is running ahead of its Wall Street peers on timing. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley both place the next increase in December, whereas Goldman argues that two consecutive hikes is the natural sequence given the Fed's stated policy direction. Rate futures compiled by CME FedWatch currently assign roughly a 50% probability to an additional 25-basis-point move at the October session — real disagreement about the next step remains. One complicating variable is the political calendar: the October FOMC falls only about a week before the US midterm elections, and Kay Haigh, a director at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, has suggested that proximity could push the Fed to hold in October. For crypto, the repricing has so far been absorbed without stress. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $76,400 as of the latest market snapshot, up roughly 0.6% over the past 24 hours, and leverage conditions in perpetual futures imply traders see the October outcome as a near coin flip rather than a certainty. Dollar liquidity backing Circle-issued stablecoins has remained stable as rate expectations shifted, while systematic and AI trading bot strategies tracking Fed odds have adjusted positioning without triggering broader volatility. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

Bitcoin Steady Near $76K

Post-FOMC markets have actually eased rather than tightened: the 10-year Treasury yield slipped 4–5 basis points to around 4.97–4.98% after briefly topping 5%, and the two-year fell 3 basis points to 4.70%, while Brent crude dropped more than 2% to near $103 a barrel and WTI fell 2% to $100.38, softening inflation fears. Equity futures pointed higher before the New York open — S&P 500 up 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 up 1.1%, with Nvidia gaining 1.5% in premarket trading. Bitcoin (BTC) extended its advance to around $76,299, up 0.3%, and ether rose 1% to $2,433. Traders briefly bought the dip below $75,000 after the decision. Attention now shifts to the Bank of Japan, where experts polled by Bloomberg expect a hike from 1% to 1.25%.

(as of 12:07 UTC) COINOTAG's own aggregate data puts the market squarely on the fence: the Fear & Greed Index sits at 50/100 (Neutral), Bitcoin accounts for 68.1% of our tracked market, and the COINOTAG-tracked market cap stands near $2.25 trillion. In short, a hawkish repricing is landing on an already-neutral crypto tape.