Bitcoin (BTC) September Rate-Hike Odds Top 60% After Hammack's Hawkish Call

Hammack Says It Is Time to Act

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack put a September rate hike squarely back on the table on Thursday, arguing in a LinkedIn post that current monetary policy is not sufficiently restrictive to bring US inflation down. “What I am hearing is that it is time to act,” Hammack wrote, saying that both the hard economic data and what companies in her district report directly point to the same conclusion: policy is no longer squeezing the economy enough. She recounted a conversation with an official at a manufacturing firm in northeastern Ohio, who told her that a substantial share of its input costs are still rising at double-digit rates and urged the Fed to lift rates. Hammack, one of three policymakers who dissented when the Fed froze its benchmark rate in July, reiterated that tighter policy is needed to pull inflation lower. The timing was pointed: her post landed just hours after August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000, far above market forecasts, and investors now assign a probability just above 60% to a hike at this month's meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee gathers on September 15-16 to decide, and Fed officials entered their pre-meeting blackout period from midnight Thursday — making Hammack's message her final public word before the vote. The same day brought a stark counterpoint from President Donald Trump, who demanded rate cuts, arguing that America's creditworthiness has strengthened and that the United States should carry the world's lowest rates — setting up a direct clash over the September outcome.

Polymarket Had Flipped Toward Hold

Earlier in the session, the hike trade was actually losing momentum. On prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September FOMC slid from about 50% to 41% over 24 hours, dipping into the 38% range at one point before stabilizing near 40-42%; the odds of a hold climbed to 57.5%, again the most-favored scenario. The pivot was triggered by Fed Governor Waller's remarks on September 3: he said he would support holding rates in September if August inflation data confirmed cooling price pressures, arguing policy should “give disinflation a chance,” while keeping the option of further tightening open if inflation reaccelerates. Interest-rate futures moved the same direction, with implied September hike odds falling from 63.2% to 48.4%. The retreat unwound much of the repricing built after August 28, when Fed Chair Walsh signaled an inflation-fighting priority and pushed hike odds toward 60%. Risk assets cheered the shift — the optimism around a hold helped Bitcoin (BTC) rebound from roughly $77,000 to about $82,200, with some of the move driven by unwinding leveraged bets built through margin trading. That relief proved short-lived: the strong payrolls print sent hike odds back above 60%, and COINOTAG's live market data shows BTC trading near $79,600 at the time of writing, trimming the intraday bounce. The next catalyst is August CPI on September 11 — a hot print could send the repriced odds climbing again. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Binance.

Risk Appetite Still Running Hot

COINOTAG's aggregate market data shows the Fear & Greed Index at 74/100 (Greed), with Bitcoin holding a 68.9% share of our tracked universe and total tracked market cap near $2.32 trillion. Sentiment remains confident, with flows concentrated in Bitcoin and Bitcoin DeFi — positioning that would be tested well beyond the Bitcoin maximalism camp if the Fed does hike in September.