Analyst Jesse Olson Flags Two More Cardano (ADA) Downside Targets

Momentum Fades Below $0.25

Cardano (ADA) price lost the $0.25 line on Monday, and the immediate question is whether the pullback stays contained within a larger recovery. The token trades near $0.242 at the time of writing, down about 5.1% over the past 24 hours, after the Oct. 12 daily session printed a high of $0.2561 and a low of $0.2411. The slide followed an early-October advance that carried price into the upper portion of a rising channel, close to the $0.27–$0.28 zone where buyers were rejected. For an altcoin that had been climbing that channel since the summer, the rejection at its upper boundary is the cleanest explanation for the drop. The structure itself survives. Cardano (ADA) climbed from roughly $0.14 in late June, printed higher swings through August, September and early October, and remains well above that June trough despite the latest leg down. Momentum tells a sharper story. The moving average convergence divergence indicator, or MACD, reads 0.0060 and sits below its signal line at 0.0084, leaving the daily histogram at roughly -0.0024. The line itself is still above zero, so the reading describes fading upward momentum rather than a confirmed downtrend. The average directional index stood at 25.76 and has been easing; ADX measures how strongly a trend runs, not which side controls it, so the figure alone does not hand the tape to sellers. In dollar terms the immediate reference points sit near $0.24 as the nearest floor and $0.25 as the first ceiling overhead. What the daily combination does establish is a retreat inside a rising structure, with the upper channel line no longer in play and the lower boundary, currently in the low-$0.22 region, still holding beneath the recent candles. A confirmed loss of that trend line would be a separate technical development from the dip already visible under $0.25.

Olson and Andreou Split on the Support Zone

Two Oct. 12 assessments frame what comes next, and they pull in opposite directions. Analyst Jesse Olson called the daily picture bearish in a post on X, pointing to bearish divergence and the risk that the rebound after the initial sell-off prints a lower high. “Two of four retracement targets have been hit so far,” his chart noted, leaving two more targets beneath the market and further retracement areas marked below the recent peak. In his reading, a lower high would leave Cardano (ADA) exposed to another downward move. Giannis Andreou built the opposing scenario around the $0.224–$0.240 demand zone, with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $0.2271 inside it. Both readings, bullish and bearish, turn on the same band of support and resistance. In Andreou's scenario, a return to the zone followed by stabilization could set another higher low before a fresh attempt at $0.281. Below the zone sit $0.2105 and the 0.618 retracement near $0.1939, and a daily close under $0.19 would substantially weaken the recovery outlook. Upside progress requires a confirmed daily breakout above $0.281 and a successful retest before $0.3147 comes into view, with $0.3880 and $0.4844 further out. The top level implied about 92.3% upside from his $0.2519 reference price, conditional on that sequence holding. Derivatives data adds a map of where forced selling could cluster. Three-day liquidation estimates show Cardano (ADA) sliding from the mid-$0.25 area toward $0.243, with overhead exposure concentrated around $0.258–$0.262 and extending toward $0.265–$0.269, and nearer bands at $0.244–$0.245 and $0.240–$0.242. Heatmaps chart estimated exposure, not completed liquidations, so the bright bands do not guarantee price reaches them. The weekly frame stays firmer: price near $0.2435 sits under the upper Bollinger Band at $0.2688 but above the 20-week midpoint at $0.1988, with weekly Chaikin Money Flow barely positive at 0.01. Related coverage on our desk has already flagged a 2-hour chart death cross and Ali Martinez's $0.21 target after the channel rejection, while the full level map sits on our Cardano technical analysis page.

@JesseOlson · X post

A post on X.

View on X

Our composite scoring puts the strongest support at $0.2349, scored 97 out of 100 where the lower Bollinger Band, S3 and the Ichimoku Kijun converge, against the nearest resistance at $0.2563 scored 95/100. Positioning leans long on accounts but not on funding: the long/short account ratio reads 2.48, with 71.3% of accounts long, while perpetual futures funding is slightly negative at -0.0054%. The daily relative strength index sits at 50.13, and the composite trend label remains an uptrend. Holders staking ADA under Cardano's proof of stake model sit outside that leverage math; these readings describe the derivatives book, not base demand. The standing test is the one both analysts named: $0.224–$0.240 decides the reading, and a confirmed daily close under $0.224 would turn an orderly pullback into a deeper retracement.