Kalshi Puts 21% Odds on US Treasury Buying Bitcoin (BTC) by 2028

Kalshi's Treasury Purchase Contract

Kalshi traders now assign a 21% implied probability to the US Treasury completing a Bitcoin (BTC) purchase by January 1, 2028. The Bitcoin price sits flat near $79,800, down 0.3% over 24 hours, so the jump in the odds is a policy story, not a spot-flow one. The ask on the 2028 contract was flagged in a post tracking the odds after the quote climbed above 20 cents. Each contract pays out only on a fixed condition: the Treasury must announce that a purchase for the government's reserve has been completed. Research reports, speeches and executive orders do not satisfy it. A separate contract covering the remainder of 2026 quotes just 2%, which means the market is pricing a possibility somewhere in 2027 rather than an imminent buy. The legal backdrop explains the gap. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that President Donald Trump created by executive order on March 6, 2025 is built from bitcoin the government already owns through forfeiture, and it directs the Treasury and Commerce departments to develop budget-neutral ways of acquiring more. Coin swept from seizures and coin bought with fresh money are treated as separate acts. H.R.2032, introduced on March 11, 2025 and referred to the House Financial Services Committee, would govern the reserve and the federal government's holdings, but a bill's introduction does not itself meet the contract's condition. The book behind the headline number is thin. Combined traded value across the two contracts stands at $1,617, roughly 309 trades on the 2028 instrument and about 1,305 on the 2026 one, both quoted in cents. On Monday morning the 2028 contract's order book showed a 12-cent bid against a 17-cent ask, with the last fill at 11 cents. In a book that shallow, one motivated crypto whale can move the quote alone. The contract asking whether Trump will establish a national reserve before January 1, 2027, by contrast, has changed hands nearly 200,000 times and carries volatility near 3.5%.

@pete_rizzo_ · X post

A post tracking the odds.

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October Low Contracts

Bitcoin (BTC) slid to $79,146 over the weekend, the low of the recent stretch, before steadying back toward $79,800. The dip followed a week of two-way pressure, and the derivatives tape stayed busy through it. Peter Schiff had argued ahead of the drop that the coin could fall as far as $75,000. This is one thread in the wider policy debate our Bitcoin news desk follows, and the derivative bets around it have grown loud. Kalshi's October-low contracts show what traders expect next: “below $80,000” has effectively resolved after last week's decline, “below $77,500” trades near a 44% implied rate on volume above 117,000 contracts, and “below $75,000” sits close to 16%. A possible slide toward $78,000 this month is doing the rounds, a call flagged in a widely shared market post. Speculation around these outcomes set a record of its own: Kalshi and Polymarket together booked roughly $2.7 billion in crypto contract volume over the past week, an all-time high, with Bitcoin (BTC) wagers doing most of the work. On the spot side, net exchange inflows of 6,639 BTC were logged with the price near $80,000, a figure the odds markets do not directly price, and the coin is retesting the same range from the recent $80K channel test. Prediction markets have also just absorbed a lesson in humility. Most major platforms misjudged Brazil's runoff election when Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva staged his comeback win, with traders pricing his chances near 17% the night before the vote, a miss that puts thin books like the $1,617 Treasury market in perspective. Not everyone reads the dip as a trend: Galaxy's Alex Thorn says Bitcoin bottomed.

@WhaleInsider · X post

A widely shared market post.

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The Kalshi quote is a policy tail, not a trading input; the tape will settle the October contracts long before any Treasury announcement does. Our composite scoring, which rates each level from 0 to 100 on the indicators that meet there, puts the nearest support at $78,068 with a score of 98/100 and first resistance at $80,678 at 70/100. Positioning is uncrowded: funding runs at 0.0050% and open interest stands near $16.19 billion, with no dominant side to force a squeeze either way. RSI at 40.30 inside a downtrend shifts the burden of proof to the bulls. A daily close under $78,068 would push the 44% sub-$77,500 odds higher; a reclaim of $80,678 would drain them. The full level map is in our Bitcoin technical analysis.