Kalshi's Ethereum (ETH) Month-End Target Hits $2,650

Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin by market value, is trading with a firmer August-end outlook after the Kalshi prediction market lifted its month-end forecast to $2,650, data from the event-contract platform show. Kalshi, the regulated prediction exchange, now has Ethereum's August high projection at $2,650, with directional positioning turning more bullish as the token consolidates just below $2,500. The move follows a week in which Ethereum gained roughly 20%, pushing through $2,400 before profit-taking capped the advance near $2,500; on Aug. 26 the asset was changing hands at about $2,451.51. The Kalshi reading is not a hard price target but an expression of what participants expect by month close, and the upward revision signals growing conviction in the short-term setup. Kalshi's screen showed a slight pullback after the revision, but the upper end of the range held, a sign that conviction remained intact. The demand side of the market lined up behind that view. U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) booked $179.8 million in net inflows on Aug. 25, led by BlackRock's ETHA with $146.44 million. Fidelity's FETH added $25.75 million and BlackRock's ETHB contributed another $7.61 million. Secondary-market volume in the products reached $980.49 million on the day, while fund prices edged lower — ETHA fell 0.46%, FETH 0.37% and ETHB 0.44%. The ETF complex now manages $14.88 billion in total assets, roughly 5% of Ethereum's market capitalization, while cumulative net inflows have climbed to $12.45 billion. ETHA remains the largest fund at $8.23 billion, and Grayscale's ETHE carries $1.87 billion after $5.35 billion in cumulative redemptions. Elsewhere, the broader market was less buoyant: total digital-asset capitalization fell 1.95% to $2.61 trillion over the same stretch, with Bitcoin hovering near $78,000. Against that backdrop, traders are watching whether Ethereum can post a daily close above $2,500, with the Kalshi $2,650 month-end level serving as the next upside marker.

The rally was amplified by a violent squeeze on bearish leveraged bets, with liquidation data showing crypto short positions exceeding $2.7 billion cleared in 24 hours. More than 90% of those liquidations were on the short side, and Ethereum-linked positions accounted for roughly $1.13 billion of the total; the two-day cumulative tally climbed as high as $4 billion. Crypto commentator Louis Raskin described the positioning as the most extreme since November 2021, when crypto was near its all-time high. Underpinning the squeeze was a sharp drop in exchange-held supply. ETH balances on trading platforms fell from about 7.7 million coins in early June to roughly 6.54 million by mid-August, a decline of around 15%, while wallets holding at least 1,000 ETH cut their collective balances by approximately 1.7 million coins since May 20. He framed the wallet shift as a change in ownership rather than wholesale exit by large holders. The share of supply held in 1-to-10 ETH wallets rose to 4.52%, a sign that ownership rotated to smaller addresses rather than simply leaving the market. Raskin also challenged the bear market thesis built around layer-2 competition, noting that mainnet fees near $700,000 a day and layer-1 revenue of roughly $330,000 reflect the intended effect of EIP-4844 and the December 2025 Fusaka upgrade, which pushed major rollup fees below two cents. Demand indicators still point higher: roughly $165 billion in stablecoins circulates on Ethereum, about half the global total, while Ethereum and its layer-2 networks processed over $560 billion of June's record $1.79 trillion settlement volume. Staked ETH totals 41.7 million coins, about 34% of supply, while institutions and exchange-traded products hold more than 10 million ETH. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs collected $365 million in July and have recorded eight consecutive inflow sessions in August. Raskin added that the SEC's proposed safe-harbor rules, which could exempt some tokens from securities status, might redirect new issuance activity toward Ethereum.

For Ethereum, the largest altcoin, COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $2,514 resistance at 85/100, driven by the Donchian upper band, a swing high and R1. The $2,353 support scores 84/100, reinforced by the Fibonacci 0.236 retracement and EMA 20. As of 18:30 UTC, spot trades at $2,472.87, up 0.24%, with MACD bullish. Derivatives are supportive: perp funding is 0.0038%, open interest is $9.73 billion, and the long/short ratio is 1.31, or 56.7% long. The Fear & Greed Index at 65/100 (Greed) confirms risk appetite. A daily close above $2,514 opens the path toward $2,643 and $2,830; rejection puts $2,431 in play, and a loss of $2,353 invalidates the bullish thesis.