Monex Securities Sets Bitcoin (BTC) Range at $78,000 to $85,000 Ahead of FOMC

A Weekly Swing on Oil Headlines

Bitcoin (BTC) spent the week of October 16 to 22 trapped between oil headlines and equity risk, and Monex Securities' weekly review now frames the coming sessions with a $78,000 to $85,000 range. The coin rallied to the $84,000 area on a cooling crude rally, heavy spot ETF inflows and firm US equities, then handed the gains back near $81,000 as Middle East tensions worsened. The Bitcoin price stood at $81,608 at the time of writing, down 0.5% over 24 hours. The week opened under the shadow of the prior week's hotter US CPI and PPI prints, which kept rate-hike caution alive. MSCI's adoption of new index inclusion criteria added a second headwind, raising the risk that companies holding large amounts of cryptocurrency, Strategy (MSTR) among them, could be removed from indexes. Lower US long yields and dip-buying still let Bitcoin stall its slide around $81,000 early in the week. Relief came from energy markets. Partial US exemptions from sanctions on Russian crude and steady Middle East supply took the edge off oil, and Bitcoin (BTC) recovered toward $83,000. Spot ETFs absorbed more than $500 million over the period, evidence that demand rested on flows rather than leverage. A report that Washington and Tehran were negotiating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz knocked oil down sharply and set off a fresh round of Bitcoin buying, though the credibility of the report was quickly doubted. Strong SpaceX results and a raised outlook from Super Micro Computer lifted AI-linked shares, the NASDAQ rallied and Bitcoin stretched to $84,000. The October 22 session reversed the run. Reports of multiple tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz sent crude surging, and Meta Platforms, which beat expectations on the top line, sold off hard on its rising AI-related spending. Broad risk-off then dragged Bitcoin back to $81,000.

FOMC and Big Tech Earnings Drive the Outlook

The outlook for October 23 to 29 points to a market hunting for direction between the FOMC and a dense run of earnings, with crude oil the wildcard. The Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28, and markets price odds above 80% that policy rates stay on hold. Monex Securities' read is conditional: a statement or press conference that leans hard on inflation control would push US yields and the dollar higher and weigh on Bitcoin (BTC), while any nod to a slowing economy could ease rate-hike fears and invite buy-backs. The ECB follows on October 29 and the Bank of Japan announces on October 30, keeping rate paths in play all week. Earnings carry equal weight. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon all report, and attention falls on whether AI businesses are generating returns proportional to their capital spending; Meta's own session set the tone, with revenue up 26% year on year and the stock down sharply on AI expenditure. Stronger tech numbers would be a tailwind for Bitcoin, while renewed doubt about AI investment returns would likely drag the coin lower alongside US equities. Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) also report, and investors will grade both the results and the treasury posture of Strategy, the largest corporate strategic bitcoin reserve among public companies. Benjamin Cowen's warning that Bitcoin may retest its bull market support band below $83,000 frames the stakes, since the coin already trades under that mark. The Iran file stays open: President Trump has signaled he will not strike Iran before the November 3 midterms, while reporting says the US and Israel are drafting plans to resume attacks afterward. Iran is reportedly working to prolong negotiations, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. The review closes on the qualifier that a frozen standoff and a lasting oil rally would pressure Bitcoin through inflation expectations, with resistance at $85,000 and support at $78,000.

Neutral Fear and Greed, 68% Dominance

The standoff shows up in aggregate market data. Our Fear & Greed Index reads 50 of 100, dead neutral, and the Bitcoin share of the tracked universe stands at 68.0% of roughly $2.41 trillion. The $500 million of ETF inflows points to institutional accumulation rather than concentrated whale buying, which keeps the downside orderly while crude headlines dominate. Rakuten Wallet's Matrix Method, which scores digital assets at 2.8 of 5 and projects a prolonged range, fits the same picture. A confirmed push above $85,000 would likely revive altcoin appetite, while a slide toward $78,000 would do the opposite; our Bitcoin technical analysis page tracks both levels daily.