Strategy (MSTR) Discloses $20.91 Billion Estimated Bitcoin (BTC) Gain Ahead of Q3 Report

847,666 BTC Marked to Market

Strategy (MSTR) has already settled the biggest number of its third-quarter report: an estimated $20.91 billion gain on its holdings, driven by the Bitcoin (BTC) price rally through the quarter, set out in an October 5 filing with the SEC. What the document does not settle is the confirmed result. Strategy states that the figure is a financial estimate that has passed through neither an audit nor a review by an external accountant, so it stands apart from finalized net income until the company reports after Thursday's close, October 29, with a webinar at 5 p.m. ET. The estimate runs through the end of September. The gain reflects coin appreciation rather than operations, since Strategy marks its holdings to market every three months. Its treasury carried 847,666 Bitcoin (BTC) at the end of September, accumulated at an average cost of about $75,437 per coin, a Bitcoin treasury the firm runs under its stated HODL approach. Analyst consensus expects earnings per share of $21.50, against $8.42 a year earlier, although only three analysts contribute to that estimate. The stock fell 4.6% after its July report, which showed a per-share loss of $24.45 against a $52.04 forecast. A separate October 19 filing shows the board raised the buyback authorization for preferred stock and other digital credit securities from $2 billion to $3 billion, a permission ceiling rather than money already spent. One item the filings leave untouched: MSCI approved rules on October 15 targeting companies that behave more like investment vehicles than operating businesses, and Strategy could lose index spots under them, a risk its own filings do not address.

Robinhood Reports First, on Tuesday

Robinhood (HOOD) opens the reporting window after the market close on Tuesday, October 27. Analyst estimates compiled by ChartRow put earnings per share at $0.56, down from $0.61 a year earlier, while a Hudson Labs preview places revenue consensus at $1.41 billion, 16% above the year-ago figure. Past prints offer bulls little comfort: the stock has closed lower after every one of its last six reports, with post-earnings declines ranging from 2.9% to 13.2%, even though five of the six beat estimates. In July, earnings per share of $0.62 cleared the $0.44 forecast and shares still dropped 3.6% the next session. They slid another 5.25% on Thursday and 1.56% on Friday heading into the release, leaving the stock down nearly 16% in 2026. This is also the first full quarter for Robinhood Chain, the company's blockchain for tokenized assets, which launched on July 1. ARK Invest estimated the network generated about $51 million in revenue over the quarter, ahead of the roughly $41 million Ethereum recorded. Coinbase (COIN) follows two days later, also after Thursday's close, and walks into the release with a loss forecast: analysts see a $0.18 per-share deficit versus $1.44 in profit a year earlier, on consensus revenue of $1.20 billion, down from $1.87 billion and roughly 36% below the third quarter of 2025. The crypto exchange has posted adjusted losses in each of the first two quarters of 2026, so a third would extend a run of three consecutive misses of profit estimates. Its July report showed a $0.39 per-share loss against a $0.14 profit forecast, and the stock fell 10.6% on the print, although its two earlier misses sent shares up 16.5% in February and 4.2% in May. Coinbase closed at $164.45 on Friday, down about 27% in 2026, as the bear market weighed on trading activity. Spot demand has been thin by the same measure: Bitcoin ETFs shed $773.5 million across two straight sessions.

Both Stocks Still in Downtrends

COINOTAG data shows both names entering the prints in daily downtrends. Robinhood trades at $95.19, up 0.90% over 24 hours, with COINOTAG's composite scoring its strongest support at $94.11 (100/100) and its heaviest resistance at $101.11 (93/100); the daily RSI reads 35.6 with a bearish MACD. Coinbase trades at $163.88, up 0.45%, boxed between support at $161.23 (80/100) and resistance at $166.46 (100/100), with an RSI of 38.5. Both charts track a coin market still digesting a 53% drawdown, after which BloFin CEO Matt Hu expects shallower crashes. What the week's disclosures leave unanswered is the confirmed size of Strategy's gain: the $20.91 billion estimate remains unaudited, and Thursday's report is the first place the reviewed number appears.