Vitalik Buterin Rejects AI Forecast of 50% Bitcoin (BTC) Crash Within Two Years

Vitalik Buterin Pushes Back on AI Crash Call

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has publicly rejected the prediction that artificial intelligence could drive Bitcoin (BTC) down more than 50% within two years. The forecast came from Silicon Valley investor and AI-risk commentator Liron Shapira, who assigned the scenario 50% odds, arguing that AI would erode investor assumptions about the network's safety and robustness. In his September 7 post on X, Buterin wrote that he takes the opposite side of that. His reasoning rests on long-term optimism about cybersecurity: he sees the primary problem as managing the transition period itself, and expects Bitcoin to handle at least any issues that do not require social consensus. On his reading, attacks on peripheral infrastructure such as clients or mining pools should remain manageable, while the probability that AI fundamentally breaks hash functions or proof-of-work is extremely low. Importantly, Shapira's thesis does not assume cryptography itself is broken. His argument is narrower: if weaknesses investors believed were hard or impossible to find surface one after another, trust erodes even when developers eventually patch them — a speed-of-defense problem rather than a code problem.

his September 7 post on Xhttps://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2096771573529080252?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Cathie Wood Bets on a BTC-Gold Breakout

Against that security debate, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood struck a bullish tone on Bitcoin's relative value. In the September 5 episode of her monthly video series In The Know, Wood said the BTC-to-gold ratio shows “signs of a breakthrough.” She noted that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold sits at a historically very low level and called it encouraging that Bitcoin has begun rising against the metal. Wood framed Bitcoin through three characteristics — a technology revolution, a new global monetary system, and a pioneering new asset class — arguing the asset still has far to go. If inflation declines, she expects downward pressure on gold and the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio climbing to a fresh all-time high. Her inflation thesis leans on technology-driven cost collapse: genome sequencing fell from roughly $2.7 billion in 2003 to under $100, AI inference costs are dropping at a 99.99% annual pace, and Abu Dhabi's May exit from OPEC has lifted its output 78% to over 4 million barrels per day, with crude possibly falling toward $30 — dynamics that echo recent warnings such as Goldman's $120 oil warning on the other side of the price range. Wood has also maintained a base case of $750,000 for Bitcoin within five years, set out in May.

Prediction Markets Eye $81K

Traders are less dramatic than either camp. Bitcoin traded between $78,700 and $79,600 over the past day and remains up 22% over the last 30 days, yet prediction-market bettors expect choppy, range-bound action through year-end. On Polymarket, the “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” event has drawn about $63.92 million in wagers; odds sit at 73% for touching $85,000 before 2027, 51% for $90,000, and 26% for $100,000. Six-figure tails thin quickly — 10% at $120,000 and 3% at $150,000. Downside probabilities are comparable: $70,000 at 52%, $75,000 at 74%, and $60,000 at 25%. On Kalshi, a $35 million year-end price-range market centers near $81,000, with the $75,000–$79,999 band at 12.5% and $80,000–$84,999 at 11.9%, while $100,000–$104,999 draws just 3.7%. A separate Kalshi market on whether Bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000 has traded $831,848 in volume, with 83% backing $100,000 first versus 18% for $50,000. Myriad's smaller pump-to-$84K-or-dump-to-$55K event prices the bullish outcome at roughly five times the bearish one, on only about $235,000 in volume. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

Security Fears Meet Macro Optimism

Read together, the three threads trace a single arc: Bitcoin's next two years are being priced as a contest between AI-era security risk and macro tailwinds. The primary record — Buterin's September 7 X post — stakes his case on transition management rather than cryptographic failure, and Boltz's August shutdown after AI-assisted automated search surfaced limited exploits shows that premise is testable in practice. Wood's ratio call, meanwhile, assumes disinflation does the heavy lifting. With Kalshi's $35 million market clustering near $81,000, conviction HODL positioning — not breakout chasing — remains the strategy the odds reward, as our Bitcoin coverage has tracked throughout the session.