XRP Closes 2% Below 200-Day Moving Average After Binance Hack

First Close Under the 200-Day Line

The XRP price closed Saturday's session at $1.2513, 2.0% below its 200-day simple moving average at $1.2774, the first daily close under that line since August. Every close since August had finished above the line, and earlier crossings this autumn never held: XRP dipped beneath the average once in mid-September and twice in October, each stay measured in hours rather than days, a pattern that had kept the longer-term trend technically intact until now. Even Saturday's intraday high of $1.2623 stopped 0.0151 short of the line, with the session opening at $1.2566 and bottoming at $1.2424. The 50-day average at $1.3934 still sits above the 200-day, so the ordering of the two moving averages is intact; what moved is the price, from above both lines to beneath both.

Thursday set the slide in motion. News of the Binance security breach surfaced that day, an attack that reached roughly $300 million in XRP inside a $6.3 billion theft of client assets, the biggest crypto theft on record. Against that backdrop the token printed a low of $1.19 on Friday, while the week's US data added weight: the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 28, and September personal consumption expenditures, released Oct 29, rose 0.5% month over month and 3.6% year over year, well above the Fed's 2% target. The drop to $1.19 drew a quick rebound, but buyers never got the price back to the 200-day line. At the time of writing the token trades near $1.26, about 0.3% above the Saturday close yet still 0.3% lower across 24 hours. One close under an average does not by itself make a bear market, but it shifts the burden of proof to the side that must now reclaim the line instead of defend it.

Elliptic Traces 233 Million XRP

On-chain analysis by Elliptic recorded 233 million XRP moving out of five Binance Ledger wallets and into attacker-controlled addresses at about 05:05 Seoul time on Oct 30, a transfer that lands inside Thursday's sell-off window on UTC clocks. The firm values the total haul at $6.43 billion at the moment of the theft and reports the stolen XRP still resting at those attacker addresses. Two caveats come with the same record: five wallets do not equal five victims, and the quantity that moved is not the quantity that has been sold. The five wallets are Binance's own addresses on the XRP Ledger, the public chain the token runs on. At Saturday's close the 233 million tokens were worth about $292 million, close to the $300 million exposure cited when news of the breach broke.

Binance's answer came through co-founder Yi He, who said the exchange had allocated $6.34 billion from its own funds to buy up major cryptocurrencies, XRP and RLUSD, Ripple's US dollar stablecoin, among them, and that user holdings in both tokens now carry 100% reserve backing. Market structure had been tightening before the incident: Binance XRP reserves stood at 2.47 billion tokens, their lowest since December 2022. Flows elsewhere added drag on Friday, when spot ETF flows for XRP flipped to a $496,496 net outflow. The breach and Saturday's close landed in the same week, though on-chain figures alone cannot isolate the hack's effect on price from that of the rates and inflation prints. The calendar gives the market one more test this week: October nonfarm payrolls arrive on Friday, Nov 6, and a hot print on top of 3.6% PCE inflation would argue for rates staying at 3.75% to 4.00% for longer.

The $1.2730 Wall and the 0.0261 Gap

The distance this piece keeps measuring, $1.2513 against $1.2774, still runs 0.0261, and COINOTAG's support and resistance scoring puts a wall inside it. The $1.2730 level stacks the 200-day average with the 0.618 Fibonacci and scored 100/100, the board's strongest; the first floor sits at $1.2473, scored 69/100. Derivatives lean the other way from the tape: funding at -0.0011% while the long/short account ratio reads 3.29, with 76.7% of accounts long. A close above $1.2730 erases the break; losing $1.2473 reopens the $1.2002 low from the past 30 days. November's own history splits, with XRP's November +80.2% average standing against a -10% median, and our XRP technical analysis tracks the $1.2730 wall daily. Until price closes the other side of that 0.0261 gap, Saturday's break stands.