Ali Martinez: XRP Whale Wallets Fall From 351 to 339

Whale Wallets Fall From 351 to 339

XRP's largest private holders have begun moving coins, and the number that has not moved is what the market now leans on. On-chain data compiled by Santiment and published by analyst Ali Martinez in his latest metrics post shows 339 wallets still holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP each, a balance band that counted 351 addresses only a few weeks ago. Twelve heavyweights have exited. The band is the core whale tier of the ledger: addresses of that size typically absorb retail supply during drawdowns, which is why their retreat matters more than the raw count suggests. Martinez ties the exit straight to downside risk: continued selling by big capital, in his read, strips the XRP price of its footing and sends it to the $0.98 mark. The flow record points in the same direction. Total XRP balances held on crypto exchange order books climbed from 11.003 billion to 11.05 billion tokens, leaving roughly 50 million coins of fresh sellable supply parked on trading platforms. The base was not new: 11.003 billion tokens already sat on venues, and the inflow simply enlarged it. Those deposits landed while the whale cohort shrank, so supply stacked up at the same time the largest holders reduced their own exposure. The token itself trades near $1.30, pressed against the edge of an ascending price channel that buyers have defended since August, and the gap between that line and the first level sellers would attack is thin. For readers tracking XRP supply concentration, the picture is uncomfortable but specific: a holder cohort that once acted as a safety cushion has visibly thinned, and the pool of tokens waiting on venues has grown alongside the exit. The development also reaches beyond one asset for the wider altcoin market, because whale cohorts of this scale tend to set the tone for how mid-cap tokens absorb selling pressure.

@alicharts · X post

His latest metrics post.

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The $1.26 Line Decides

Everything now hinges on $1.26. The support and resistance map drawn from the same Santiment record makes that level the main line of the season: XRP sits right on the edge of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, and $1.26 is where the next leg is decided. A successful defense would let buyers absorb the deposited volumes, stabilize the token inside a $1.30-$1.43 corridor and preserve the chances of a repeat assault on the local peak at $1.62. A breakdown does the opposite. Protective stop orders cluster beneath such a level, so a break would set off their cascading execution; the first downside marker is the intermediate floor at $1.11, and once $1.11 gives way, the downward impulse unfolds toward the channel projection at $0.98. Any stabilization attempt from here depends on buyers standing ready to absorb volume at those marks. The chart context was already defensive before the whale exit surfaced: XRP completed a death cross below the 200-day EMA near $1.37, so trend-following positioning had already turned cautious. The distribution also lands weeks after Ripple Swell 2026 gathered 1,500 decision-makers in New York, a reminder that institutional attention around the asset has not faded even as its largest holders reposition. Martinez's wallet-count chart makes clear that 339 addresses are what remains of the cushion, and each of those addresses holds at least 10 million tokens, so the remaining net is coarser but still deep. For holders deciding where their own tokens should sit while the level is tested, our explainer on crypto exchange vs crypto wallet setups covers the trade-off, and granular level work lives on our XRP technical analysis page.

@alicharts · X post

Wallet-count chart.

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Our reading of the two records is that the count matters less than the composition. Twelve departures sound small next to 339 survivors, but every exiting address carried at least 10 million tokens, so the selling capacity behind the move is larger than the arithmetic of wallet counts alone suggests. The exchange balance is the cleaner tell. Whales who want out must place coins where liquidity lives, and 50 million tokens arrived on venues while the cohort shrank. The $1.26 defense therefore decides whether that supply is absorbed or unleashed, and the 339 remaining addresses are the net beneath it. Whichever way the level breaks, the ledger's own measure of the imbalance now stands at 50 million newly placed tokens against 11.003 billion already held on trading platforms.