Bernstein Sees Robinhood Prediction Markets Revenue Reaching $1.7B by 2028

Bernstein Puts Event Contracts Ahead of Crypto

Bernstein analysts expect Robinhood Markets (HOOD) to generate $1.7 billion of revenue from prediction markets by 2028, ahead of the $1.6 billion they project from the platform's crypto operations that same year. The updated forecast, shared with clients on Monday, leaves a $100 million gap between the two business lines and treats event contracts as one of the incremental earnings drivers for the retail brokerage. Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts priced on the outcome of real-world events such as elections, sports results and economic data releases, and the model has revenue from that segment climbing from an estimated $650 million this year to the 2028 target. At that level, event contracts would account for roughly 18% of Robinhood's projected $9.4 billion in total 2028 revenue, with the crypto business close behind at about 17%. For a revenue mix that has leaned on equities trading and, increasingly, crypto, a contract product reaching parity with the crypto line within two years is the core of the call. Bernstein first flagged a $1.7 billion prediction market figure in a note dated July 20. The fresh research goes further: it sets the 2028 number directly against the crypto revenue forecast for the same year and pairs both with a third-quarter revenue estimate and upward revisions to annual projections. The desk is explicit that these are its own estimates, not company guidance and not confirmed targets Robinhood has set for itself. Volume and revenue are different measures here: the platform's September crypto trading volume was recorded at $21.9 billion, the notional value of trades executed during that month, while the 2028 figures are projected earnings from the underlying businesses.

The market has discounted the forecast so far: COINOTAG data shows the stock changing hands at $93.22, down 2.22% over 24 hours, inside a $91.84 to $96.07 range. The composite scoring rates the $89.10 support at 79 out of 100 and the $101.47 resistance at 99/100, the strongest line on the map. Momentum indicators sit at the weak end, with the daily RSI at 33.4, a bearish MACD signal and the trend still classified as a downtrend. Perpetual open interest stands near $16.0 million, so leverage has not amplified the slide. At the last quote the stock sits between the two mapped lines, closer to the support.

Third-Quarter Print Due Monday

The forecast lands one day before the third-quarter 2026 earnings report, due Monday, and the quarterly estimate gives investors a benchmark for the actual print. The desk expects revenue of about $1.5 billion, a 13% increase over the previous quarter, driven by growing equity notional volumes, higher options activity, rising event contract volumes and a recovery in crypto trading volume. Beyond the quarter, annual revenue estimates were raised by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028, moves attributed to higher revenue assumptions across the equities and crypto businesses. The price target stays at $160, roughly 70% above Monday's premarket quote, a gap the market's own pricing does not share. The quarterly detail matters for the prediction market thesis as much as the 2028 projection: rising event contract volumes are one of four growth drivers listed for the quarter, meaning Monday's report offers a near-term read on whether that segment is compounding. Bernstein's roughly $1.5 billion Q3 estimate can be measured against the company's own disclosure when results are out, and the desk held the same target through its July update. The stock has not traded as if the forecast changed anything. Premarket quotes on Monday put shares near $93.60 before the open, and the slide extends well beyond this note: the stock is down more than 29% over the past 12 months, a decline that has trimmed the brokerage's market cap over the same stretch. COINOTAG's map places the nearest resistance at $96.98, and Monday's $91.84 to $96.07 trading range left that ceiling untested, with the last quote at $93.22.