Kobeissi Letter Puts Coinbase (COIN) 56% Below Highs in Stealth Bear Market

Twenty Tech Stocks Below Their Highs

Crypto-linked equities have slid into what research account The Kobeissi Letter calls a stealth bear market, a drawdown deep enough to matter but masked by a headline index sitting near records. In a mid-October post, the account counted twenty technology stocks trading in bear-market territory, led by AppLovin at 65% below its high. Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN) rank third on that list at 56%, with Circle Internet Group (CRCL) 44% below its high and Robinhood (HOOD) 40%. The S&P 500, by contrast, spent October close to record levels.

The gap traces to concentration. Since March 30, ten stocks have delivered 70% of the S&P 500's gains, and Nvidia alone supplied 13% of the advance. Micron and Alphabet also rank among the top contributors even though both trade 24% and 28% below their peaks, so the damage sits inside the index as well as outside it. Holders of crypto equities carry the steepest of those hidden losses, a setup far from the broad participation that usually marks a bull market.

Rate expectations have shifted underneath the trade. Kobeissi's mid-October pricing data showed three additional Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes priced by June 2027, a reversal from the start of 2026, when markets expected three cuts. Economist Peter Schiff compared last month's narrow breadth to 1973 and 1999-2000, episodes he said preceded 50% index declines. Kobeissi itself expects the opposite, a sharp rally if energy and rate pressure ease, though that call depends on breadth widening beyond the ten stocks currently carrying the index. The asset beneath those equities shows the same strain: the Bitcoin (BTC) price has repeatedly slipped back under $80,000, and a US Treasury buyback that filled its $6 billion cap on Tuesday failed to lift it.

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Mid-October pricing data.

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Record Revenue, a Harder Test for Coinbase

Robinhood's third-quarter results exhibit filed with the SEC shows record revenue of $1.4 billion, yet diluted earnings per share fell 16% year over year, a pairing that echoes the sector's pattern of activity without matching profit. The three names on Kobeissi's list are retail gateways to digital assets: a listed crypto exchange, a stablecoin issuer whose income rides on rates, and a brokerage whose crypto volumes feed the same retail flow. Each earns from that pool from a different angle, which is why one drawdown shows up in all three charts.

Circle's exposure is the most direct, because the company issues USD Coin (USDC) and earns most of its revenue from interest on reserves, which makes each quarter a function of where rates sit. That mechanism cuts both ways with the repricing described above: pricier money lifts reserve income even as it weighs on risk assets. CRCL shares fell about 11% intraday in September after a Senate vote on the CLARITY Act stalled the crypto market-structure bill. COIN reports third-quarter results after the close on Thursday, 2026-10-29. Expectations near $1.2 billion in revenue would mark a 36% drop from a year earlier, and consensus compiled for the print points to a loss. The setup follows a weak second quarter: consumer transaction revenue fell 20% year over year to $452 million, and spot trading volume dropped 25% from the first quarter. Bitcoin's failure to hold $80,000 removes one catalyst that could have rescued the quarter's trading line. For holders weighing whether to sit through the report, our guide to building a crypto portfolio for bear markets covers the positioning basics.

Thursday's print lands with little cushion beneath the stock: COINOTAG data shows COIN last at $157.07, down 2.0% over 24 hours and near the floor of its $156.50-$162.81 range, with the daily RSI at 34.4 and the MACD signal bearish on a downtrend. The nearest level below is $156.72 support, which our composite scoring rates 100/100 and which sits under $0.40 away from the last price; the first ceiling is $166.74 resistance, also 100/100. CRCL carries the same shape, last at $79.16 after a 2.9% daily loss with bearish momentum readings. A break under the $156.72 floor would extend the downtrend, while a move through $166.74 would be the first sign the stealth bear market in crypto equities is easing.