Bitcoin’s BIP-110 Fork Mines Only 2 Blocks Before Stalling

A breakaway Bitcoin (BTC) network tied to the BIP-110 anti-spam proposal stalled almost immediately after splitting at block 961,632, producing only two blocks in about eight hours before falling dozens of blocks behind the main chain. The split began when nodes running BIP-110 software rejected a block mined by AntPool that lacked the required signal, while an Ocean-pool miner supplied the alternative block followed by the minority chain. The fork inherited Bitcoin’s existing difficulty setting, exposing how tightly ASIC mining economics and the 2,016-block recalibration schedule constrain minority chains. With only about 2.53% of recent blocks signaling support, the breakaway network faced a production gap that would stretch roughly 350 days to the next difficulty adjustment, versus about two weeks on the primary network. The proposal needed a 55% threshold to activate without dividing the network. Strategy executive Michael Saylor said about 99.85% of hash power remained on the main chain, adding that the rival branch had already fallen more than 80 blocks behind. The mandatory signaling window closes at block 963,647, a height the minority chain is unlikely to reach. Replay risk also complicates forked-coin trading, since identical transactions can be repeated on both chains. Bitcoin governance thus produced a fast, market-led answer rather than a sustained split.

Earlier in the session, an AI-generated scenario attributed to Claude Fable 5 framed a potential move beyond October’s $126,000 peak as a new all-time high, projecting that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by December from about $64,600. The model’s bull case rests on only 1.32 million coins remaining unmined, an estimated 4 million coins permanently lost, and a shrinking float becoming the dominant second-half narrative. Regulatory catalysts include the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act stablecoin framework, while monetary-policy expectations focus on Fed rate cuts and a possible dovish shift after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. The scenario also points to exchange-traded fund holdings above 1.5 million BTC, continued corporate treasury accumulation, and a BTC-backed lending market that analysts expect to exceed $100 billion this year. The counterweight is equally specific: June 2026 produced the largest monthly ETF redemption on record at about $4 billion, and Bitcoin finished the first half down nearly 33% while technology equities rallied. In that tape, the market was pinned between $63,900 and $65,000, with a bearish path opening toward $45,000 if macro policy disappoints and fund outflows persist. This is a model output, not a market forecast, but it shows how supply-side mechanics are being used to structure the next bear market versus recovery debate.

By the latest technical reading, Bitcoin was trading near $65,000 but remained inside a broader consolidation, with the rebound failing to generate the force needed for a structural shift. On the daily chart, price action is pressing toward the $65,800-$66,800 supply zone, an area that capped earlier recoveries and is now reinforced by a descending trendline. The asset also sits below declining moving averages, keeping the wider structure tilted lower unless buyers force a decisive close above that resistance band. A rejection would refocus attention on the $57,800-$60,000 demand region. On the four-hour chart, the immediate ceiling is narrower: the $64,800-$65,400 area has repeatedly absorbed buying after Bitcoin recovered from the $61,800-$62,300 support box. Holding below that zone keeps another dip possible, while sustained acceptance above $65,400 would allow a test of the larger daily resistance. On-chain cost-basis data adds a second layer of resistance, as the 1-3 month holder cohort has a realized price near $67,000 and the 3-6 month cohort near $72,000, leaving both groups underwater. Those levels could become supply points if price approaches break-even. Geopolitical developments around US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz, together with upcoming US inflation data, may supply the next volatility catalyst.

BIP-110's backers have since escalated from a failed rule change to proposing a proof-of-work algorithm swap that would launch an independent coin, with Bitcoin Knots maintainer Luke Dashjr suggesting September 1—the original BIP-110 activation date—as the target. The proposal's pseudonymous author, Dathon Ohm, accused large pools of collusion and said the community is drafting the change. A PoW swap would render every existing ASIC useless on the new chain overnight. The precedent is stark: Bitcoin Cash split in 2017 with far broader support while keeping Bitcoin's algorithm, yet now trades near $215, roughly 0.3% of BTC's price. Meanwhile, OCEAN's reported hashrate collapsed 96% after it admitted routing some miners to the minority chain without clear consent, and Bitcoin Core contributor Murch filed a motion seeking Dashjr's removal as BIP Editor, citing conflict-of-interest concerns.

By Sunday afternoon, the enforcing branch had fallen to 111 blocks behind the main chain after roughly 17 hours without producing a new block, widening the gap from the more than 80 blocks Saylor cited earlier. Both fork blocks were produced by a pseudonymous group called Roughnecks using Ocean's DATUM protocol. Since the mandatory window opened, zero of the first 113 blocks on the main chain carried the version-bit signal. Blockstream's Adam Back joined Saylor in public opposition, objecting primarily to the activation method rather than the spam-reduction goal itself. Ocean separately told clients that miners using its Stratum templates may have unknowingly directed hashrate to the BIP-110 chain and said it would compensate affected participants with the rewards they would have collected on the main chain during that window.

(as of 16:40 UTC) COINOTAG’s reading ties these threads to one point: Bitcoin’s consensus layer is currently more decisive than its price tape. Public block data shows the BIP-110 branch could not maintain production after inheriting mainnet difficulty, confirming that ASIC mining economics and the 2,016-block adjustment rule still police fringe forks. That governance resilience does not remove market pressure. ETF outflows, AI-driven supply narratives, and underwater short-term cost basis all point to a market seeking confirmation above resistance before trend restoration. The primary record says the network did not fracture; the charts say the asset has not yet escaped its range.