Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Stocks’ AI Pop Fades to 10.2% Moves

Bitcoin News

The era when a simple artificial-intelligence label could lift Bitcoin (BTC) mining stocks is losing force. Analysis covering 25 AI and high-performance computing infrastructure announcements between June 2024 and Aug. 4, 2026 shows average absolute same-day price moves fell from 32.5% early in the sample to 6.3% by the end. The first eight announcements produced a 24.1% average reaction, while the latest eight managed only 10.2%. Larger deals no longer guarantee a durable pop: TeraWulf’s 401-megawatt Anthropic lease, valued near $19 billion, closed just 4.9% higher. CleanSpark’s $6.6 billion, 175-megawatt contract gained 8.8%, while Bitdeer’s $4.7 billion, 121-megawatt deal briefly rose 12% before closing flat. The shift marks a more selective phase for Bitcoin miners repurposing power assets toward compute, with investors demanding tenant credit, construction visibility and diluted earnings.

Long-term bulls are framing the drawdown from October’s all-time-high above $126,000 as an accumulation window rather than a broken cycle. With Bitcoin trading near $64,000, the token remains roughly 49% below that peak but more than 120% above its level three years ago, when it changed hands near $29,000. The prior advance was powered by U.S. spot ETF approval in January 2024, the April 2024 halving, and successive Federal Reserve rate cuts after 2024. More than 20 million of the 21 million capped coins have already been mined, reinforcing the scarce digital-gold argument. The expected catalysts for a potential doubling over three years are the 2028 halving, clearer U.S. market-structure legislation and renewed rate cuts if inflation cools, even after the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate.

A governance fight over BIP-110 is adding another layer of risk to the network’s roadmap. The proposed soft fork would limit large non-financial data written directly to the Bitcoin blockchain, a response to Ordinals-style inscriptions that critics describe as spam. Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy, has emerged as the most prominent opponent, arguing that letting participants arbitrarily define which data is valid would create a dangerous censorship precedent. Strategy controls roughly 4% of circulating supply, worth about $54 billion at current prices, giving Saylor’s objection outsized economic weight. He summarized the case in an essay titled “110 Reasons BIP-110 Is a Bad Idea.” With consensus lacking, the proposal appears likely to fail, avoiding the kind of network-split volatility last seen around the 2017 Bitcoin Cash fork.

Short-term positioning remains defensive after another $155 million in futures liquidations across the crypto market over the latest 24-hour window. Long traders absorbed the larger share, with $88.45 million in forced long closures against $67.28 million in short losses, while about 79,843 accounts were liquidated. The largest single print was a $1.96 million BTCUSDT perpetual position on Bybit. Bitcoin touched $64,999 intraday before slipping to roughly $64,359, a modest 0.42% decline, while Ethereum defended the $1,900 area. Among larger altcoins, SOL fell 1.82% to $72.71 and XRP dropped 2.41% to $1.0371. The Fear and Greed Index improved from 25 to 29 but remained in the fear zone, and major U.S. equity indexes finished slightly lower as traders watched Middle East negotiations and oil prices rather than chasing crypto momentum.

Daily-chart structure is beginning to stabilize after the bear market phase that followed June’s lows. Price has held above the $64,000 region and formed higher lows through July and early August, a pattern that suggests sellers are losing the ability to force fresh breakdowns. Bitcoin also remains above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, with the shorter average tilting upward and the 50-day flattening after months of decline. Momentum has improved without reaching overheated territory, and the next major supply zone sits near the 200-day moving average around $72,500. Volume on the recovery is still moderate, but the market has not immediately reversed each bounce. Losing the $64,000 base would likely reopen a longer consolidation phase. A sustained break above the average cluster would be the first clear signal that the repair phase is maturing.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates immediate support at $64,069 with a 70/100 score, driven by EMA 20 and HVN, while $63,218 scores 75/100 from SMA 50 and Fibo 0.214. Resistance at $65,167 scores 64/100 via Flip S→R and Swing High, with $66,966 at 66/100 from Donchian Upper and Keltner Upper. Spot is $64,361.99, RSI 51.57 and MACD bearish in a sideways tape. Funding at -0.0019% and $12.88 billion open interest show longs are not paying a premium, while the 1.29 long/short ratio leaves modest bullish positioning. Fear at 29 supports contrarian accumulation if $63,218 holds; a daily close below it invalidates the bullish case and opens $61,235.