Bitcoin (BTC) Jumps 2.5% to $64K After Trump Warns of Strike on Oman

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 2.5% to $64,426 on Aug. 17, 2026, posting its largest one-day gain since July 14 after President Donald Trump warned that the US could strike Oman if it interfered with American–Iran negotiations. The warning came as the 60-day negotiation period set by a June US–Iran memorandum expired without a new formal agreement. Washington and Muscat have each been negotiating with Tehran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian officials said an agreement with Oman was close. Asked whether he planned to extend the memorandum, Trump said no. Brent crude futures jumped 2.7% to settle at $90.87 per barrel, while WTI futures rose across the curve, showing that energy markets were pricing renewed Gulf uncertainty; Brent had traded above $113 in April before falling to around $70 on July 2 after a temporary truce, and has climbed steadily as clashes resumed. Derivatives tracking data showed a short squeeze: $81.3 million in bitcoin short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, representing 93.4% of the $86.8 million in total liquidations, with more than $68 million of that volume triggered after Trump's remarks. Open interest in BTC futures rose 3.5% industry-wide and futures volume jumped more than 130%, a sign that speculative positioning was rebuilding alongside the spot move. Corporate demand added to the bid. Strategy, in a regulatory filing published Aug. 17, reported keeping its bitcoin treasury unchanged at 840,447 BTC while raising $333.7 million through the sale of 3.46 million MSTR shares and increasing its US dollar reserve to $4.8 billion. The filing showed no new bitcoin sale, a contrast with the previous week's disclosure of a 1,690 BTC sale at an average price of $64,262. The absence of a follow-up sale helped calm nerves after that disclosure. Prediction markets had priced a 63.5% chance of another sale on Aug. 12; by early Aug. 17 that probability had fallen to 16.5%, removing a lingering supply overhang.

Separately, macro research from digital-asset manager CoinShares points to Tokyo as the key risk for the Bitcoin market. James Butterfill, the firm's head of research, identified Japan's interest-rate trajectory as the biggest macro risk for Bitcoin, noting that Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries with roughly $1.1855 trillion at the end of 2025. If Japanese investors repatriate capital into domestic bonds as inflation lifts local yields, US rates could face upward pressure, a potential headwind for liquidity-sensitive assets. Butterfill argued that this is not the base case and that a loss of confidence in US government debt could instead drive flows into Bitcoin as a store of value not tied to any single state. The near-term macro picture is improving in his view, with US labor data weakening — nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July 2026 and June was revised down to +20,000 — while inflation prints have broadly matched forecasts. That combination has strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which Butterfill described as a tailwind for BTC, even though the initial market response was muted by thin summer liquidity; daily spot volume on trusted exchanges is running near $4 billion. Crypto ETPs are not adding directional pressure, with roughly $150 million in outflows expected this week after inflows the prior week, a shift the research desk does not read as deteriorating sentiment. Butterfill noted that Bitcoin has recently moved almost inversely to gold, behaving like a risk asset while investors wait for fresh economic data. The next signal is the Jackson Hole symposium from Aug. 27-29, 2026, where Fed guidance on easing could set the tone for Bitcoin's next move.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R engine puts Bitcoin spot at $64,140, with the immediate floor at $63,914 scoring 94/100 on Ichimoku Kijun and Pivot Point. Just overhead, $64,294 resistance scores 73/100 on flip S→R and EMA 50; a break opens $67,264 (71/100 via R3 and LVN). Derivatives lean long but not stretched: funding is 0.0039%, open interest across Binance/Bybit/HyperLiquid is $13.44 billion, and the long/short ratio is 1.65, with 62.3% long. RSI at 51.3 and a still-bearish MACD keep the trend sideways, while the Fear & Greed Index at 41 caps enthusiasm. The bear-market scenario regains control on a daily close below $63,914, which would open $62,486; the bullish case needs a close above $64,294.