Bitcoin (BTC) Treasury Buy-Sell Ratio Falls Below 90%, Fourth Time on Record

Buy-Sell Ratio Drops Below 90%

Corporate demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has thinned to a level recorded only three times before. The Bitcoin Treasuries Buy-Sell Ratio, which measures public-company buying of Bitcoin against public-company selling, has fallen to 89.58%, its first drop below the 90% line since September 2024. Put simply, cumulative corporate purchases now stand at just under nine-tenths of cumulative corporate sales across tracked companies. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, flagged the reading in a post on X: “Bitcoin treasury companies in capitulation. Yes this is a good thing historically. The ratio of cumulative buys to sells just dropped below 90%.” History explains the attention. On the three earlier occasions, in December 2019, June 2022 and September 2024, Bitcoin went on to gain between 2.1 and 9.6 times its value from the point each signal appeared, a record that turns a corporate selling panic into a watchlist item. The timing caveat is just as consistent. In each of those episodes the market fell further after the signal printed, dropping another 11% to 46% before the recovery began, so the ratio has historically identified stretches of heavy selling rather than exact market bottoms. Investors who bought on the signal day in any of the three earlier cycles sat through fresh losses before being paid for the wait. The reading lands with the Bitcoin (BTC) price near $74,700, up about 1.2% over the past 24 hours. Corporate treasuries became one of the largest persistent sources of demand in recent cycles, which is why a sustained tilt from accumulation to distribution among corporate Bitcoin treasury holders moves the whole market rather than only the companies involved. For readers who want the longer cycle context behind a print like this, our Bitcoin rainbow chart guide walks through the historical valuation bands.

MARA Leads the Selling, Strategy Keeps Buying

On-chain tracking data shows 14 public companies have sold or transferred an estimated 108,247 Bitcoin (BTC) so far in 2026, a figure worth about $8.08 billion. Firms tied to crypto mining account for most of that activity. MARA leads the outflows outright with 40,581 BTC sold, of which 13,597 BTC went to repay Bitcoin-backed loans. The estimates carry a disclosed caveat: some of the tracked entries include estimated outflows and trading-related deliveries rather than confirmed spot sales, so the realized disposal total may differ from the headline figure. Miners selling to cover costs and obligations is a recurring feature of the sector; the scale of this year's wave is what pushed the aggregate ratio below the 90% threshold. Strategy sits on the opposite side of the ledger. The company purchased another 1,036 BTC between November 2 and 8, adding to its corporate strategic bitcoin reserve even while Bitcoin traded below the firm's average acquisition cost. That split, miners liquidating holdings to cover obligations while Strategy keeps buying at a loss, is the divergence inside this capitulation print. The next scheduled catalyst concerns the buying side of that split directly. MSCI has set its November index review announcement for shortly after 11 p.m. CET on November 11, per its investor-relations notice, and new eligibility rules could exclude Strategy and Metaplanet from major stock indexes. Strategy estimates that funds tracking MSCI indexes hold roughly $1.6 billion of its shares, while JPMorgan has previously projected potential outflows of $2.8 billion, the scenario behind our earlier look at Strategy's $2.8 billion MSCI test. Exclusion would force affected index funds to sell MSTR shares, potentially weakening Strategy's capacity to raise fresh money for further Bitcoin (BTC) purchases. The company would not be required to sell any of its Bitcoin, and any index changes take effect after November 30.

Live Levels Around the Capitulation Print

Nothing in our live readings contradicts the historical caveat. Our Bitcoin technical analysis composite puts the strongest support below the market at $73,109, scored 93 out of 100, with the first resistance overhead at $75,039 scored 94, leaving spot pinned between two heavily fortified levels. Momentum stays weak: the relative strength index reads 37.1 and the trend label is bearish. Positioning, by contrast, is orderly, with the perpetual funding rate at 0.0045% and the long/short account ratio at 2.86, about 74% of accounts leaning long. On the evidence, the capitulation print marks a phase of heavy corporate selling rather than a confirmed bottom, and Strategy, still adding below its average cost, remains the one large treasury on the buy side of the ledger.