Goldman Sachs Lifts Brent Crude Oil (BZ) December Target to $105

Goldman's $105 December Call

Goldman Sachs raised its December forecast for Brent crude oil to $105 per barrel on Monday, a call that sits 17% above the bank's October estimate of $90 and reflects what its research team describes as elevated supply disruption risk. The revision was set out in a note by analysts led by Daan Struyven, who point to the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine, alongside broader geopolitical fragmentation, as conditions that create a high risk of disruption. As a result, Goldman's 2027 base case now carries an allowance for a global supply disruption of 1 million barrels per day, although the bank said the timing and location of any such disruption are nearly impossible to predict.

COINOTAG data shows Brent last changing hands at $109.08, down 2.89% over the past 24 hours after touching a session high of $112.57. On COINOTAG's composite scoring, the nearest resistance sits at $114.51 and carries a score of 87/100, while support at $106.08 scores 66/100. The daily trend reading remains an uptrend, though the MACD signal has turned bearish and the daily RSI at 54.1 leaves room in either direction. Perpetual open interest stands at $242.9 million, with funding at -0.0173% per interval, a mild short bias among leveraged traders.

Goldman said markets are pricing a higher risk premium, with many traders expecting a lasting diplomatic breakthrough to prove difficult. Last week, Iran claimed mines struck four tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a claim United States forces disputed. The upgrade also marks a shift from mid-October, when the bank's base case assumed Middle East supply would adapt and gradually pull prices lower. Brent (BZ) traded at $110.40 on November 2, which leaves even the raised target about 5% below the market, and the bank's $94 WTI forecast trails the current $101.06 by a similar margin. For traders holding crude, the higher December figure still implies Goldman expects the oil price to ease by the end of the year.

Forecasters Split on 2027

JPMorgan's model put Brent's fair value at $94 last week, against a market price near $114 at the time. The bank's analysts could not tie the gap to shipping costs, which leaves geopolitical risk as the more probable driver of what traders describe as oil's war premium. Historically, stretches in which Brent traded more than 5% above fair value lasted an average of 3.8 months, a record that suggests the premium can persist well beyond a single quarter.

Near-term forecasts converge, but the 2027 picture splits. BMI, the research unit of Fitch Solutions, expects Brent to average $107 this quarter. Its 2027 projection of $81 sits below Goldman's $88, and BMI does not expect a Hormuz agreement before the first quarter of 2027. Once a deal lands, BMI sees a steep drop, with Brent averaging $67 by late 2027. A decision on Iran, or measurable progress toward a Hormuz deal, would determine which 2027 forecast the market prices first. On COINOTAG's scored map, Brent tested the $112.36 resistance, scored 67/100, during Monday's session before easing back toward $109.