Grayscale Says Zcash (ZEC) Still Undervalued, Sees $8,109 in Bull Scenario

Grayscale's Undervaluation Case

Grayscale Research argues that Zcash (ZEC) remains undervalued even after a rally of roughly 19x over the past year, and the asset manager has mapped out scenarios in which the privacy coin could trade as high as $8,109 if it captured 10% of Bitcoin's market cap. In a note published August 25, head of research Zach Pandl wrote that Zcash offers financial privacy and other attributes users may come to view as essential in the age of artificial intelligence, adding that the firm sees the asset positioned to keep taking share. The report places ZEC in Grayscale's “Money” category, where Bitcoin alone accounts for 93% of the category's total value. ZEC's capitalization stood at $13.74 billion as of August 29, ranking 11th among crypto assets — under 1% of Bitcoin's $1.56 trillion, a gap of roughly 114x. Grayscale frames that gap as evidence investors may be underpricing ZEC's differentiators: shielded transfers that use zero-knowledge proofs to conceal sender, recipient and amount, a fixed 21 million supply, and proof-of-work security. Its scenario math, built on projected supply over five years, puts ZEC at $1,622 at 2% of Bitcoin's cap, $4,054 at 5% and $8,109 at 10% — hypothetical figures, not price forecasts. The privacy thesis also leans on an August 19 analysis arguing that AI tools linking public addresses to exchanges and counterparties could renew public demand for financial confidentiality, with Intents technology — which lets wallets coordinate cross-chain swaps so users or AI agents can route into ZEC without merchants accepting it directly — cited as a distribution edge. Market access widened the same week: Grayscale's converted trust began trading as a spot ZEC product, ZCSH, on NYSE Arca on August 25 after leaving OTCQX, a step documented in the official prospectus filing. Execution risk remains — the Zcash Foundation patched two Zebra vulnerabilities in Q1, including a critical remote denial-of-service flaw and a high-severity chain split risk.

Crowd Arrived Before the Top

While the institutional narrative dominated, social data suggests retail attention peaked before price did. Analytics firm Santiment's social-volume tracker recorded 232 ZEC mentions on August 22 — roughly six times the usual August baseline — one day before the token printed its recent high near $878. ZEC had climbed from about $509 on August 18 to $878 by August 23, a gain of roughly 72%, before mentions slid back to baseline by the ETF's August 25 launch day. In short, the crowd showed up early and faded right as the institutional product went live. Since that peak, the token has pulled back to roughly $789, about 10% below the high, a retracement that followed a run the market had already started pricing in: Grayscale's ETF filing sparked a 40% surge earlier in the month. Grayscale Research maintains that Zcash could emerge as a serious challenger to Bitcoin's network effects as demand for financial privacy grows, noting that no alternative, Litecoin included, has seriously dented BTC's dominance among digital currencies. For investors weighing an entry after the dip, our step-by-step guide to buying Zcash covers custody choices, including when a cold wallet makes sense for privacy-coin holdings — though the shift from speculative froth to structured products is still playing out. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

social-volume trackerhttps://x.com/SantimentData/status/2092906034914271515

$872 Resistance Caps the Rebound

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $872.72 resistance at 78/100, driven by the confluence of R3, the Donchian Upper band and a swing high — the ceiling ZEC must clear to extend the move. First support at $815.28 scores 75/100 (Fibo 0.114, S1, ATR Lower, HVN); losing it shifts focus to $751.66, which carries a 63/100 rating. RSI at 74.13 flags overbought conditions even as MACD stays bullish in a confirmed uptrend. Funding of 0.0047% across major perpetual futures venues and $721.4 million in open interest show leveraged longs building without extreme crowding, while a Fear & Greed reading of 68 (Greed) leans supportive but hot. Spot trades at $839.64, up 5.06% in 24 hours; a break above $872.72 validates the bullish thesis, while rejection there followed by a loss of $815.28 invalidates it.