XRP Withdrawals Hit 55.75% of Binance Flows Ahead of Fed's October 28 Decision

Withdrawals Outpace Deposits on Binance

XRP withdrawals have overtaken deposits on centralized exchanges, lifting the withdrawal share to its highest level since August 18, two days before the Federal Reserve's October 28 rate decision. Data compiled by analyst Amr Taha puts withdrawals at 55.75% of all XRP deposit-and-withdrawal transactions logged on Binance over a seven-day window on October 25, with the share across all centralized venues at 54.85%. Deposit shares dropped to 44.25% on Binance and 45.15% market-wide, and both readings sit within one percentage point of their August 18 levels, when a similar withdrawal-heavy mix coincided with a local turn in the XRP price, which now trades near $1.29 and is about 1% lower over the past 24 hours. The counts carry a caveat: the metric tracks the number of transactions, not the volume of tokens changing hands. A withdrawal-heavy mix on venues dominated by spot trading shows more transfers leaving exchange balances, not automatically a shrinking pool of sell-side supply. The tilt is strongest on Binance itself. Its seven-day spread between whale and retail outflows stood at 49.5% on October 26, against 29.7% across all exchanges, and the 19.8-point gap was only 2.5 points on July 28. Much of the outgoing flow appears to be moving toward self-custody, with tokens shifting to private wallet addresses rather than between venues, as documented in the exchange-flow dataset behind the reading. The complication sits on the other side of the ledger: large holders recently pushed $112.4 million in XRP onto Binance, the heaviest deposit wave in seven months, so big players are active in both directions and the transaction counts alone cannot confirm that exchange supply is tightening. Whether this amounts to pre-Fed positioning or routine custody rotation is the question running through this week's XRP news.

Risk-Adjusted Returns at a Four-Month Low

The accumulation question carries extra weight because the token's returns have lagged its swings. Binance's Sharpe-like ratio for XRP fell to about -0.2641, its weakest reading in four months, according to a separate Quicktake note from analyst Arab Chain. The ratio measures return earned per unit of risk and volatility, so the decline means the profits generated over the measured period became less attractive relative to the turbulence traders absorbed to capture them. At -0.2641 the gauge sits well under the zero line that separates profitable risk-taking from unprofitable risk-taking. That deteriorating risk profile lands against a macro setup with little room for error. The Federal Reserve lifted rates by 25 basis points in September, ending a pause that had stretched back more than three years, and the October 28 decision arrives with CME FedWatch pricing a 90.6% probability of a hold at 3.75% to 4.00%. The same tool assigns a 79.7% chance to another hike in December, which is why the December signal may matter more for XRP than the October vote itself. A firm hint at one more hike would extend the pressure that has already dragged the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to a neutral 50 out of 100, while a softer tone would give the withdrawal trend a cleaner path into price. Traders sizing exposure through contract trading face the same calculation with higher leverage attached. One price marker frames the risk on both sides: the token still sits well below the $1.40 reclaim test that framed Ripple's Swell week in New York, and a four-month-low Sharpe reading does not by itself dictate which way that level breaks.

Neither dataset settles the debate running through this week's XRP news, and neither will before the Fed speaks on October 28. Our own aggregate data shows Bitcoin holding 68.2% of the COINOTAG-tracked market and total tracked capitalization near $2.35 trillion, a structure in which the altcoin market rarely finds an independent bid while the rate path is unresolved. Sentiment parked at a neutral 50 confirms there is no panic bid behind the withdrawal spike. Our earlier on-chain tracking also recorded whale wallets falling from 351 to 339, which fits a pattern of large holders redistributing between wallets rather than exiting the asset. Institutional demand offers one counterpoint: XRP ETFs logged $3.55 million on Thursday, the best single day since October 8. The decisive input is the December guidance: a hold on October 28 keeps the current range intact, while any firm signal of another hike tests whether the outflow trend finally reaches price.